UK Golden Quarter spend to jump says Shopify, but consumers will seek price cuts

Shopify has been digging deep into consumers’ spending intentions for the key shopping periods coming up in the current Golden Quarter and its data suggests a big per capita jump in the UK.

For the company’s Holiday Retail Report 2025, it spoke to 18,000 global consumers and 7,500 small and medium-sized businesses, including 2,000+ in the UK.

The findings show that Britons plan to spend £181 across Halloween, Black Friday and Christmas on seasonal goods. That’s up from £159 last year and comes despite Budget worries and the ongoing cost-of-living squeeze.

Shopify said this suggests “rising retail confidence and cautious optimism, shared by both businesses and consumers ahead of this year’s peak shopping season”.

That can be seen from 80% of UK businesses expecting higher sales this holiday shopping season compared to last year compared to a global average of 72%. 

Interestingly too, two-thirds of shoppers plan to use AI to find inspiration and deals but, 74% still prefer buying from people, while 41% will split purchases evenly between online and in-store.

But there’s a key note of caution in the report with Shopify saying that “although confidence is positive, retailers shouldn’t mistake this for unlimited consumer appetite”.

Those setting a spending cap is evidence of that. Some 63% in the UK have a spending cap – considerably higher than the global average of 51% – and 39% will stick to it closely. 

Clearly shoppers will be price-conscious and the company said UK businesses expect 39% of their sales to come from promotional pricing while 68% plan to introduce new types of deals. 

“As we look ahead to the festive season, retail stands at a moment of renewal” said Deann Evans, MD EMEA at Shopify. “Demand is returning, and confidence is stirring, but shoppers are more discerning than ever and will be selective with where they spend. With consumer optimism changing the attention economy, businesses must ensure their holiday retail strategies cut through the noise and take advantage of increased spend this year. AI-powered shopping and a renewed appetite for discovery are defining this year’s festive season. Shoppers no longer think in channels, the lines between online and in-store have blurred. They expect seamless checkout, effortless transitions, and small moments of delight throughout the journey. Brands that remove friction, meet customers where they are, and add value before and after the sale will be the ones to win loyalty this season and beyond.”

And what about the AI element mentioned above? Some 66% of UK shoppers say they’re likely to use AI for holiday shopping, with use strongest for finding inspiration and discovering products. Still, trust is key: 67% of consumers remain wary of AI and 74% say buying from a person still matters. 

Shopify said: “Brands have a clear opportunity here. The most successful businesses will pair AI-powered personalisation with transparent controls and easy access to human support, building trust and comfort as shoppers try new technology. The message is clear: there is scope for more AI adoption, and brands that balance tech‑enabled personalisation with human service will have the strongest advantage.”

The company also said one promising trend is that shoppers are rediscovering products across channels, “likely because of increased optimism and willingness to spend”. Some 80% of those in the UK (higher than the global average of 74%) said they’re more likely to discover a product across different channels compared to 70% in 2024. 

Discovery through physical retail and online are both up 19% year-on-year, “suggesting UK shoppers are once again moving fluidly between digital and physical spaces”. 

Advertising, particularly digital, has also regained influence, with almost one in three saying they’re using it more than they were last year to discover products. 

Discovery through social media is also on the rise, with 23% using social media ads more, 19% influencers more, and 29% using brand and family connections more.